The case for a global recession in 2015

Fortune

Four years after the end of the Great Recession, it looks as if the U.S. economy might finally be poised for breakout growth.

Monthly job growth in 2014 is, on average, faster than at any point since the financial crisis. Overall economic growth appears to picking up too, with real GDP growing by more than 4% in the second quarter of this year, and many economists predicting higher overall growth compared to last year.

But news outside the U.S. isn’t so bright. European economies are still battling depression-era levels of unemployment and the threat of deflation. And emerging economies, like China, are having trouble maintaining the kind of growth they have become accustomed to in recent years. The most recent readings out of China have the world’s second-largest economy growing at roughly 7.5% per year, down from the 10% growth it averaged for two decades before its economy began to…

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